TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Unlocking America’s Future
DATE: Tuesday, October 20th
RE: Skyrocketing home insurance costs and growing extreme weather risks will shape the 2026 midterms, from statehouses to Congress
Homeowners’ Insurance Crisis Top Line:
With less than three weeks until Election Day, the cost of insuring a home has become one of the defining affordability issues of 2026. The New York Times reports that the price of keeping a roof overhead has joined gas, diesel, and groceries as a top voter concern, and that rising premiums driven by polluters’ climate-fueled fires, hurricanes, winds, severe storms, and tornadoes have put reliably Republican states like Kansas and Florida onto the battlefield and pushed North Carolina toward Democrats.
This is not a niche issue confined to insurance commissioner races. Voters are holding governors, state legislators, and members of Congress responsible for premium hikes, canceled policies, and denied claims, while insurance and polluting corporations post record profits. Candidates who name the problem, take on big insurance and polluting corporations, and ask voters for their support will be rewarded at the ballot box. Candidates who stay silent, or who side with insurers and polluting industries, are running against their own constituents’ monthly bills and the risks being placed on their property and homes by climate polluters.
Voters Paying More For Less Every Month:
Home insurance premiums have skyrocketed 46% since 2021 nationally, nearly triple the rate of inflation. Insurify puts the increase at 49% since 2021, including a 12% jump in 2025, with the average premium now above $3,000 a year.
The pain is no longer limited to hurricane and wildfire states. Six of the 10 most expensive states for home insurance now sit in the nation’s midsection, in Tornado and Hail Alley. In Kansas, the premium on a $300,000 home is now $5,289, 84% above the national average. An estimated 1 in 7 homeowners nationwide are going without insurance just to pay other bills.
The Midwest has been hit especially hard. Iowa premiums jumped 28% in 2025 alone, the third-highest increase in the nation, and the average Iowa homeowner has seen premiums climb 54% in two years. Insurify finds Minnesota premiums up 85% and Colorado up 60% since 2023.
Meanwhile, the industry is thriving. Property and casualty insurers posted record profits and policyholders’ surplus reached $1.27 trillion, even as the biggest five insurers closed nearly half of all claims without payment last year.
Voters Are Demanding Action and Want Insurers and Climate Polluters Held Accountable:
The polling is consistent across states, regions, and party lines: voters are worried, they are motivated, and they want accountability. Insurance costs are driving turnout. An Insurify survey found 58% of Americans say rising insurance costs make them more likely to vote this fall, and 61% agree elections affect home insurance costs in their state. More than a quarter say premium hikes are directly influencing their vote, a share that climbs to 65% in Florida and 61% in California.
Voters say elected officials are failing them. SurveyUSA polling for the Insurance Fairness Project and Climate Power in Arizona, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and North Carolina found roughly three in four homeowners and renters worried about rising premiums, and 83% to 86% saying officials in their state should do more to bring costs down. Between one in four and one in three have already delayed a major purchase because of insurance costs, rising to 30% in North Carolina. Another recent poll found 75% of likely voters, including 67% of Republicans, oppose legislation that would give fossil fuel companies “legal immunity from having to pay for the damages they have caused by worsening climate change.”
Blame reaches every level of government, and points to the opportunity of candidates willing to take on these powerful corporations. In Iowa, 67% of voters say their governor is doing too little, and 67% of Midwestern voters say the same about federal elected officials, tied with insurance companies themselves. Midwestern homeowners also faulted state legislators and insurance commissioners.
A new national poll from the Insurance Fairness Project and Data for Progress, fielded in mid-September, found a growing bipartisan demand for corporate accountability and stronger consumer protections. 84% of voters support a right to take action against insurers that deny, delay, or underpay claims, and 82% support the same right against insurers that cancel coverage or raise prices without warning.
Bigger Than Insurance Commissioner Races
Four states elect insurance commissioners this year: California, Georgia, Kansas, and Oklahoma. All four experienced massive premium increases last year, ranging from 5% in California to 24% in Oklahoma. These races are anything but sleepy. In Kansas, the commissioner contest is surprisingly fierce, and in Oklahoma a populist “Make Insurance Fair Again” campaign upset the Republican establishment’s preferred candidate in the primary. Georgia’s Republican incumbent faces what the Cook Political Report calls a toss-up after homeowners in that state have seen insurance rates have climbed 40% since 2020 under Republican control of the legislature and insurance commissioners office. The Democratic challenger, a former popular state legislator, has announced real solutions to help Georgia homeowners and is capitalizing on the incumbent’s inaction. But the impact runs well beyond those four offices.
In 39 states the governor appoints the insurance commissioner, and 32 of those governorships are on the ballot this year. Yet most candidates rarely talk about home insurance, leaving an opening for those who do. In Florida, the gubernatorial candidates have clashed directly over who can tame the country’s highest premiums.
State legislatures write the rules commissioners enforce. Oklahoma lawmakers just gave the next commissioner authority to reject excessive rate increases, Georgia expanded its commissioner’s power to weigh insurers’ claims conduct, and Illinois authorized regulators to reject excessive rates. Elsewhere, legislators have passed industry-backed anti-consumer tort laws that strips homeowners of tools to fight denied claims. Voters in Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska said state legislators are doing too little, and is a reminder about how impactful home insurance and risks are to the cost of housing.
Voters are demanding federal action too. Congress controls FEMA disaster aid and mitigation funding, NOAA forecasting, and the National Flood Insurance Program, all of which shape how much risk lands on homeowners. Congress also has the power to hold hearings, conduct investigations, and direct enforcement action. Republican members in swing districts have taken insurance industry money, voted to cut FEMA funds, stayed silent as premiums soared, and completely failed to hold polluters and insurers accountable. That record is now on the ballot.
Candidates Asking For Votes Must Take on Big Insurance and Polluting Corporations:
Voters are not looking for candidates who simply acknowledge that premiums are high. They want candidates who will fight. Even some Republicans are reading the room: the Kansas House Speaker, running for insurance commissioner, has promised voters that if insurers make their lives difficult, he will be their worst nightmare. His Democratic opponent has made the case that the fox should not guard the henhouse.
Candidates can win on this issue if they:
- Name the culprits. Voters already blame insurance companies raising rates to increase profits, and they connect extreme weather to their bills. Candidates should say plainly that insurers are posting record profits while denying claims and dropping customers. Similarly, candidates must name the big climate polluters, who are also posting record profits, driving the risks threatening their homes, businesses, and properties while the same insurers underweight and invest in the polluters working families are now paying for in their monthly home insurance bills.
- Champion transparency and accountability. Support for a homeowner’s right to challenge insurers that deny, delay, or underpay claims tops 80% in national polling. Candidates should back rate transparency, limits on credit-score pricing, and stronger regulators.
- Lower risk, not just prices. Restoring FEMA mitigation funding, NOAA forecasting, and a stable flood insurance program reduces the risks that drive premiums up.
- Ask for the vote on it. With 58% of voters saying insurance costs make them more likely to turn out, and a quarter of Americans unsure who even regulates insurance in their state, candidates who connect the issue to their own race will close the education gap and turn concern into votes.
UAF has spent this cycle documenting how elected officials have sided with insurers over homeowners in the states and districts where the crisis is hitting hardest. Here are some key races to watch:
Congressional races
- FL-27: Rep. María Elvira Salazar. Sits on the only House committee with real oversight of home insurers but has not held a single hearing on the crisis while taking industry contributions.
- TX-15: Rep. Monica De La Cruz. A former insurance agent and vice chair of the insurance oversight subcommittee, she represents McAllen, which has the nation’s highest uninsured-home rate at 41.5%, and has collected nearly $50,000 from property insurers. Rep. De La Cruz has let the NFIP languish while failing to hold a single hearing focused on holding insurers accountable.
- NC-03: Rep. Greg Murphy. Represents the North Carolina coast, home to some of the worst non-renewal rates in the country; he voted for devastating cuts to FEMA and the industry-drafted 2018 state consent-to-rate law.
- IA-01: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Took nearly $20,000 from home and auto insurers as Iowans faced some of the steepest rate hikes and highest claim denials in the country.
- IA-03: Rep. Zach Nunn. Took more than $46,000 directly from the home and auto insurance sector.
- Iowa Senate: Rep. Ashley Hinson. Repeatedly siding with the insurance industry against Iowa homeowners and farmers.
Gubernatorial races
- Florida: Rep. Byron Donalds (R). The Republican gubernatorial nominee refuses to address the disastrous policy choices driving this crisis at both the state and federal level. Donalds failed to deliver on any of his promises or policies in Congress for Florida homeowners, announcing do-nothing proposals that would only maintain the status quo for Florida homeowners. He’s been silent about the industry-driven 2022 anti-consumer tort laws that left Floridians paying the nation’s highest premiums with fewer ways to fight denied claims.
- Texas: Gov. Greg Abbott. His recent insurance directive comes after years of skyrocketing costs fostered by his and Texas Republicans’ anti-consumer policies and similar tort laws that empowered insurers to continue to delay, deny, and defend claim payouts. Abbott’s last-minute Hail Mary on home insurance despite his failed leadership creating this crisis underscores how important and critical this electoral issue is to voters.
- Arizona, Kansas, and Nebraska: Polling found overwhelming majorities want elected officials, including congressional members, to do more; Arizona is a Cook toss-up, and Arizona’s Latino voters registered the highest concern of any group surveyed.
Conclusion
The home insurance crisis—fueled by corporate polluters shifting climate risks onto everyday homeowners while elected officials look the other way—is no longer a quiet backdrop to the 2026 midterms; it is a decisive issue shaping the election. Every home affordability issue, rate hike, canceled policy, and delayed or denied claim traces back to policy choices by elected officials, from the statehouse to Capitol Hill. Voters know it, they are angry about it, and they are ready to reward candidates who stand up to big polluters and insurance corporations and ask for their support. The candidates who meet this moment will be rewarded at the ballot box.
To connect with insurance experts, ratings analysts, policymakers, or impacted homeowners, email jayson@focalpointstrategygroup.com.
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